Sondajele indica urmatoarele cote de incredere: Clegg 35%, Cameron 33%, Brown 23%.
Daca simulam aceste cifre in sistemul electoral, obtinem urmatoarele rezultate:
CON: 259 mandate
LAB: 193 mandate
LIBDEM: 165 mandate
Alte partie: 33 mandate
Marea Britanie va fi guvernata de un cabinet de coalitie.
Sursa: UK Polling Report
The three leaders discused foreign policy in their much-anticipated clash in Bristol.
9.29pm Clegg finishes saying the electorate they do not have to „simply choose from the old choices of the past”.(Finish istoric. Clegg castiga la puncte.)
9.27pm Cameron accuses Brown of scaremongering. He says: „All of that sounded desperate.”
9.26pm: Brown accuses Cameron being a risk to the economy and Clegg a risk to the Britain’s security.(Din disperare de cauza si lipsa de subiecte liderul laburist isi ataca contracandidatii. Un lider uzat. No land for old men.)
9.25pm: Leaders make their final pitches.
9.24pm: Clegg: All I would say to David Cameron and Gordon Brown: let’s have our differences, but let’s not live in denial. We have to deal with this issue, we can’t just keep on ignoring the issue, we can’t keep making promises that don’t work.
9.23pm: There is a big difference on this between the Conservative Party and the other two parties who are dancing around on it. Frankly, Nick’s policy wouldn’t work.
9.22pm: Brown says his Government has already been tightening up, with biometric ID cards for foreigners and a points system for non-European immigrants. (Discursul este surreal. Majoritatea emigrantilor provin din fostele colonii britanice si au acces liber pe piata muncii. Singurele tari care ar fi putea afectate de aceste masuri ar fi tariile latino-americane. Discurs de campanie electorala.)
9.21pm Immigration is still the topic.
9.19pm: Cameron takes a tougher line saying he will impose caps on workers from non EU countries.
9.17pm: But Brown says Labour plan to manage immigration to only allow people in with the skills the country needs.
9.16pm: Clegg advocates a partial amnesty so illegal workers can start paying into the tax system.(In Marea Britanie traiesc cca. 1 milion de emigranti ilegali)
9.15pm: Young woman asks „What measures the leaders take to make immigration fairer?”
9.12pm: But Cameron hits back at Brown saying: „You’re trying to scare people”.
9.10pm: Brown turns on Cameron saying: „You’re a risk to the economy”
9. 08pm: Cameron: „The threat to our economy is not cutting waste, it’s the jobs tax, and 1,100 business leader agree.”
9.04pm: Questioner asks if a coalition government is the best way forward for the economy.
8.52pm: Cameron adds: „Let’s clean it up and recognise that we were all in this mess.”
8.49pm: Cameron: They are going to be voting for a cleaner politics. There’s just simmering boiling anger about the expenses fiasco. We have to cut the cost of politics. Politicians have been treating the people of this country as mugs.
8.46pm: Brown says: „Can your vote make a difference? Yes it can. We want a referendum of the future of the House of Commons and the House of Lords. Your vote matters because we’ve got to secure the recovery. I was ashamed by the behaviour of some of the MPs. Anyone who breaches the guidelines should be thrown out of the House of Commons.
8.44pm Clegg: „You need to be given the power to sack any politician who proves to be corrupt. You’re the boss. We need to clear up the murky business of party funding. We all have problems. It’s your country, it’s your future. Assert your right to vote and shape your own future.(Mesaj istoric. Din aceste moment discursul poarta eticheta unui discurs stateman.)
8.43pm: New questioner asks Brown, Cameron and Clegg how they plan to restore the public’s faith in politics in the wake of the expenses scandal.
8.41pm Brown: „The Church has to deal with these problems. There has to be an open and clean confession of what has happened. But I want the Pope to come to Britain. The Catholic Church is a great part of our society.”
8.40pm: Clegg: „My wife is Catholic and my children are being brought up in her faith. I have a sense of the anguish that is being felt. Many Catholics will feel extremely torn apart. They do want to see the Catholic Church express openness. You can’t keep a lid on sin. There has been terrible terrible suffering.”(Din acest moment Clegg a castigat electoratul familist. Liderul liberal britanic este casatorita cu o jurnalista din Spania.)
8.38pm: Cameron: „Do I agree with everything the Pope says? No. The church has some very serious work to do. But I do think we should respect people of faith.”
8.37pm: A gentleman asks the leaders if they back the Pope’s visit to the UK in the wake of the paedophile scandal which has engulfed the Catholic church.
8.35pm: Clegg: „We have to act in out interest not just be at the beck and call of anyone else.”
8.34pm: Cameron: „What Gordon Brown isn’t telling you is that we are potentially heading for power cuts in 2017 and nuclear power stations won’t come on stream by then.”
8.33pm: The PM adds: „You cannot have a balanced energy policy without nuclear power.
8.32pm: Brown says he is a keen train commuter. He adds: „I have only used one plane in this election. I would recommend people use solar energy. We’ve got the first climate change act. We’re due to reduce emissions substantially.”
8.30pm: Cameron says: „The biggest change that I’ve been able to come out with is to campaign against the third runway at Heathrow.
8.28pm: Next question concerns climate change and what have the leaders doing to cut their own emissions.
8.24pm: Cameron adds: „I profoundly believe we are better having an independent nuclear deterrent in an unsafe and uncertain world.
8.20pm: Cameron: „I have been to Afghanistan. Everytime you are blown away by the professional and commitment of our Armed forces.
8.16pm Brown: „There is a chain of terror that link these Al Qaeda groups. Most plots arise in the Afghanistan area and we have to deal with it.”
8.13pm: Cameron: „We have to learn from the mistakes of the past, we have to plan properly. We have to make sure we don’t send out troops in to battle without the right equipment and without the right helicopters. I still worry we’re not doing enough to get the political situation in Afghanistan right.(Cameron patineaza din nou. In iunie 2009 Cameron promitea retragerea trupelor din Afghanistan in 300 de zile. In aprilie 2010 Cameron si-a mutat discursul spre dotarea trupelor.)
8.11pm: The leaders move on to their policy over Afghanistan war.
8.09pm: Brown says membership of the union is vital for jobs. He says: „Three million jobs depend on the European union. Let us not be an empty chair in Europe. I think what people want is to get on with the employment problem and the economic problem.”(Liderul laburist propaga un raspuns tipizat: „Europa produce joburi. Seamana cu sloganul lui Clinton: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.)
8.07pm: But Clegg argues: „We’re stronger together and we’re weaker apart.”
8.06pm: Cameron says: „We should be in Europe, we want to cooperate and work to get things done. We have let too many powers go to Brussels and we want to get those back. I want us to be in Europe but not run by Europe. (Pozitia lui Cameron este in contradictie cu programul partidului. Peste noapte Cameron sa sucit, daca in iunie 2009 Cameron dorea un referendum asupra Tratatului de la Lissabona, zece luni mai tarziu Cameron a abandonat aceasta ideea. Electoratul dur al conservatorilor britanici vor migra in masa spre alternativa eurosceptica UKIP.)
8.05pm: First question – How would you deal with EU interference?
8.03pm: Nick Clegg meanwhile says: „We shouldn’t have invaded Iraq” and says he wants a world „free of nuclear weapons”. (Pozitia lui Clegg coincide cu programul ELDR si se regaseste in discursurile lui Westerwelle)
8.02pm: David Cameron goes next and says „I want to keep our defences strong, our borders secure and our country safe”.
8.01pm: Gordon Brown kicks off the debate making his pitch and telling the audience: „I am your man”.
Intrebare: Securitate nationala, proliferare nucleara, interventie Irak, teatrul de operatiuni din Afghanistan
Transcriptia cotidianului TIMES este completa si arondata de comentariile specialistilor de imagine. La acest capitol premierul Brown este cotat drept cel mai slab. No Country For Old Men!
Textul trebuie citit de jos in sus.
9.26pm: The final statements.
Brown: The buck stops here, I’m already doing this job. We’ve talked about Afghanistan, where we’re getting the job done. We’ve talke about the economy and my message is: don’t do anything which would put the economy at risk.
I would say David you’re a risk to our economy. Nick you’re a risk to our security.
Cameron: I don’t know about you but I thought all that sounded slightly desperate. It sounded like an attempt to frighten people. If you vote Conservative you know you’ll get a fresh new team on May 7, not damaging uncertainty. We need a clean break from 13 years of Labour failure so we can build our Big Society.
Clegg: We can lead in this world, not just complain about it. We’ve talked about a lot of things tonight: climate change, immigration, the Pope. On all these things there are things we can do. I feel that there is a real desire for change. We don’t simply need to choose from the old choices of the past. Don’t let anyone this time tell you it can’t be different. It can.
9.24pm Interestingly, Clegg is now going on the offensive. After chasing Brown on the amnesty, now he’s chasing Cameron on his proposed immigration cap. How many? Ten? Ten thousand? Ten milion?
Brown: Net inward migration is falling… We’re counting people in and we’re counting people out from the end of the year.
Cameron: Immigration has been rising since Labour come to power.
Brown: There are a million Britons working in the EU and a million EU nationals working here. That’s part of being in the Eu.
Now to closing statements.
9.20pm Still on immigration, Brown says his Government has already been tightening up, with biometric ID cards for foreigners and a points system for non-European immigrants.
Cameron: There is a big difference on this between the Conservative Party and the other two parties (that phrase again!) who are dancing around on it. Frankly, Nick’s policy wouldn’t work. (I also don’t agree with Nick any more.)
Clegg: All I would say to David Cameron and Gordon Brown: let’s have our differences, but let’s not live in denial. We have to deal with this issue, we can’t just keep on ignoring the issue, we can’t keep making promises that don’t work.
Brown: Nick, I’m not interested in point-scoring. I’m interested in doing the right thing.
Clegg: But what would you do with all the people who are here already? Brown: Get them out? Clegg: But you can’t deport 900,000 people when you don’t even know where they live.
That exchange went to Clegg, I think.
9.15pm Next question is from a UK immigrant of 13 years – how would you make immigration policy fairer?
Clegg: I would have a strong border police, also make sure that immigrants are not sent to areas that are already overcrowded. And I would let illegal immigrants pay tax.
Brown: When we talked about it last week, Nick didn’t tell us that he wants an amnesty on illegal immigration, which I think would be a wrong policy. (In other words, I don’t agree with Nick any more.)
Cameron: I think we should build a strong society altogether. Immigration has been too high – and the other two parties are not prepared to tackle it.
Clegg: What I want, and everyone wants, is an immigration system that works. Gordon Brown talks about an amnesty, but the only person in British politics advocating an amnesty is Boris Johnson, the Conservative Mayor of London.
9.13pm Cameron: Look at the bickering here tonight, imagine what it would be like in a hung Parliament.
Brown: David, I see you haven’t denied that you’re taking six thousand million pounds out of a recession.
Clegg: You have to split high-risk casino banking from high street banking. Neither of the old parties even want to contemplate real reform of our banks.
9.10pm Clegg: the world won’t end if voters decide that nobody here tonight deserves an outright majority. We would then have to put the country first and ensure that government is not constantly hijacked by constant political point-scoring.
Brown: We made the right decisions on the economy. The Tories want to take £6 billion out of the economy. „David, you’re a risk to the economy. Nick, you’re a risk to our security with your nuclear policy.”
The soundbites all feel very rehearsed – and don’t bear much relation to the questions. All three seem to be adopting the tactic that ‘if I’m talking the others have to keep quiet’.
9.09pm Cameron: the threat to our economy is not cutting waste, it’s the jobs tax, and 1,100 business leader agree.
9.08pm More from Sam Coates: Excellent TV moment from David Cameron – attacking Gordon Brown for putting out lies on leaflets. Gordon Brown’s response was a disaster – he both abrogated responsibility, saying he had „not authorised” them, while simultaneously justifying the content by quoting from Tory manifesto.
9.04pm Next question: is it time to put aside political differences and form a government of all the talents?
Cameron: if there is a hung parliament we must do the best we can for the country, but to be frank I don’t think a hung parliament would be good for Britain.
Clegg: The questioner is right that it is better if politicians work together, which is why I proposed setting up a council for financial stability, with top politicians, Governor of the Bank of England and so on which could tell the truth on the size of the black hole. But don’t believe ludicrous (Tory) scare stories about dangers of a hung Parliament.
Brown: We already have a business council. The key thing is to sort our economy out, stop it falling back into recession, and the Conservatives don’t want to do that.
9.04pm Debate moves on to issues of carers: candidates say much the same things as last week.
9.03pm It’s early days, but Clegg seems to be clearly ahead in our poll.
9.01pm Clegg says this debate risks „collapsing into a game of political ping pong” but has to be brought back on track by Adam Boulton when he drifts off course.
9.00pm One hour in and here’s the verdict so far from Sam Coates, our Chief Political Correspondent, who is in Bristol tonight:
David Cameron is having a better week than last week, but Nick Clegg is holding firm under pressure. Clegg slightly ahead because he looks more like he is thinking on his feet opposed to Cameron’s more polished, rehearsed-looking replies, but there’s not much in it. Gordon Brown is putting in a mixed performance – his body language is awkward, he has difficulty staring at the camera and his smile is a disaster.
8.58 pm Cameron reacts angrily to „disgraceful” suggestion from Labour that pensions would suffer under a Tory government and risk losing free TV licence and heating payments and so on.
8.54pm Next question from an 84-year-old pensioner, Grace, who has worked all their lives bringing up families. Is it right that I only get £59 a week?
Brown: No, I hope you’re getting pension credit. That’s why we started it.
Cameron: £59 is not enough. We will increase pensions because we have taken the tough decision to make people work a year long.
Clegg: The earnings link needs to be restored. It should never have gone. There are so many costs, as you’d know, that it can be hard to make ends meet. Tells story of an elderly couple who wrote to him and told him how they get in a bus and go round and round just to keep warm.
Brown: Grace’s issue is that every woman should have a full state pension, and that is what we’re doing.
8.53pm Still going round in circles on expenses. All three candidates seem to be better prepared than last week. How do you think they are there doing? Vote here.
8.51pm Cameron says Brown has failed to ensure that people live up to their responsibilities. Too often in our country today if you do the right thing you are punished.
Brown: So why would you cut inheritance tax for rich people and tax credits for poor people?
Clegg interrupts: I thought we were talking about politics?
8.48pm Brown says politics can make a difference. Cameron agrees, but says that politicians have been taking people for mugs for ages, always asking to be allowed to pass one more rule or regulation. Real solutions come when we all accept our responsibilities as citizens. Doesn’t mention the phrase „Big Society”.
But Brown, interrupting, almost does, saying you can’t run a health service „on DIY principles”.
Clegg: If you give people jobs for life, safe seats for life, of course they’re going to cut corners.
8.44pm First domestic question: how are you going to restore faith in politics after the scandals of the past year.
Clegg: you have to be given the chance to sack corrupt politicians. We all agree on the rhetoric but we have to act.
We have a very strange electoral system that allows Gordon Brown to be in power when only 22 per cent of people voted for his party, so we need to reform that.
Brown: We need to clean up the Commons and the Lords – but your vote does matter, because if you vote Conservative you’ll ruin the economy.
Cameron: the first thing people need to know is that they will be voting for a cleaned-up Parliament. They want to make sure that this cannot happen again.
I like the fact that you can sack the MP but I like also the fact that you can sack your government too – let’s not have endless hung parliaments.
Nobody mentions all the stories about Clegg today – so Adam Boulton does. „Complete rubbish” Clegg says of Daily Telegraph front page report on him receiving donations through his personal account (see details below..).
8.43pm That’s the end of the international affairs part of the debate.
8.40pm Adam Boulton reminds them that the question also covered issues of science and scientific ethics.
Cameron says he does not agree with Pope’s position on those issues but would not want to derail the visit.
Clegg: I agree with Dave (not an exact quote…)
Brown: The Pope should come to Britain but we should have those debates.
8.36pm Next question, do you back Pope’s visit to UK given all the controversy at the moment?
Cameron: Yes, I think we should try to make a success of it. Do I agree with everything the Pope says? No, I don’t agree with him on contraception, I don’t agree with him on homosexuality. I respect people of faith.
Clegg: I’m not a man of faith but my wife is Catholic and my children are being brought up as Catholic. I think a lot of people want the Catholic Church to come clean. „You can’t keep a lid on sin.”
Brown: I’ve met some of the victims of the abuse and it never leaves them. The church has to do what it can for them.
8.32pm Still on energy, Cameron says we could face power cuts by 2017, according to the Government’s own figures. We need to get the renewables and extra gas on stream as soon as possible. We’ve had too many failed strategies over the past 13 years.
Clegg: I remember Gordon Brown sitting on the sidelines at Copenhagen. We need a global response.
Brown: 100 people have now signed carbon emission reduction plans. Your anti-Americanism will not help us.
Cameron: You don’t need words. You need action. All we get from the other two parties are more words, more regulations, more laws.
Clegg denies being anti-American, but says „it shouldn’t be a one-way street”.
Brown turns to Cameron: your anti-Europeanism is dangerous.
Cameron (direct to the people): the other two parties are trying to frighten you. (Not the first time he’s used that „other two parties” line tonight…)
8.30pm Brown questions Clegg: why you so against nuclear power; and Cameron: why you so against inshore wind power. We need to get this energy balance right.
Cameron: one of the biggest opportunities is with our homes: we are offering green deal giving people £6.500 to help green their homes.
Brown: the only problem is we’re doing it already.
Clegg: I don’t have a theological opposition to nuclear power; it’s just very expensive and it takes far too long to build nuclear power stations. We should have a mass insulation programme so we can use energy more efficiently. That’s the way towards a sustainable future.
8.26pm Next question: what are you doing personally to tackle climate change.
Brown: I’ve been on trains all the time during the campaign, only one plane. (Doesn’t mention that Labour can’t afford a plane.) And I’ve put a solar panel on my roof, not a wind turbine (dig at Cameron).
Cameron: Says how he got a letter from critic of Blue-Green policies, saying „Mr Cameron, if you’re so concerned about carbon emission, why don’t you stop breathing?” Joke falls flat.
Clegg: Like many people, I try to change my behaviour. I try to go to my constituency on the train. But I admit that, like many people, I don’t do enough. Aviation should be taxed more, especially half-empty ones.
Brown: We have to change the energy balance and end our addiction to oil. Which is why our energy plan…..
8.24pm Cameron finally goes on attack, criticising Lib Dem position on Trident. Clegg refers him to the letter in The Times from a group of retired generals backing him.
Brown joins the attack: „I deal with these issues every day and I say to you Nick, get real.”
Clegg comes straight back. You get real.
Cameron: „I never thought I’d utter these words, but I agree with Gordon.”
Factcheck: in fact he agreed with Gordon four minutes earlier.
8.22pm The debate is a bit cagey on the defence issues: nobody wants to be too overtly political when there are troops involved. All three swap anecdotes about their encounters with the Armed Forces, including Cameron saying how he could barely keep up when he went jogging in Bristol this morning with a veteran of the Afghan conflict.
8.20pm Brown: we have to deal with al-Qaeda in Somalia and Yemen, and I too would like to pay tribute to our brave troops.
BREAKING NEWS: Cameron: „I agree with Gordon Brown.” That’s the first agreement of the night and it’s a bit of a surprise..
8.19pm Clegg: And part of it is to make sure that the money is spent on the right things. I wouldn’t spend money on third tranche of Eurofighter, nor £100 billion on like-for-like replacement of Trident. There, he said it first, hismelf.
8.17pm Brown: We have to take on al-Qaeda whereever it is. Cameron: If I were PM I would have to take that decision very carefully: is it in the national interest, will it make our country safer? And we would have to make sure our troops were properly equipped. In Afghanistan I’m afraid many of those questions were not answered.
8.15pm: Clegg, the reason I supported Afghan intervention, as opposed to illegal war in Iraq, was that it was right to help keep the world safe, so in principle yes. But you’ve got to do the job properly, and equip the troops properly, or not do it at all.
8.14pm Adam Boulton, the Sky political editor, is hosting, and letting it flow a bit more than last week, although we’re now moving on to „Question B”: If there’s another failed state like Afghanistan, would the UK join in?
8.13pm Cameron: there is a real difference between us, and it’s that we have people standing up here and promising to stand up to Europe and then going over there and kowtowing. Clegg lays in to Tories links with „anti-Semites, religious nutters” and so on.
Brown joke: „You know who these two remind me of? They remind me of my two young boys squabbling at bathtime.” It’s impressive how he can ad lib quite so easily…
8.11pm The tactics are beginning to emerge – and it’s already clear that Nick Clegg won’t be able to walk away quite so easily with the outsider’s victory. On Europe, Brown is targeting Cameron and his links with „right-wing extremists”. Clegg is putting himself forward as the voice of experience, having been a Brussels insider (although he doesn’t quite use that phrase).
8.10pm But we want to hear from you: let’s have another poll!
8.09pm First verdict from Sam Coates: David Cameron delivered the safest of the three opening statements, but it was a fluent performance. Gordon Brown said count me out if this debate and election is about PR. Nick Clegg mentioned his mothers interment in the prisoner of war camp. Although Clegg and Cameron have got the hang of looking into the camera, Brown still has trouble with this
8.08pm Brown: there are 3 million reasons why we should be strong in Europe and they’re called jobs. Isolation on the fringes of Europe would be a terrible, terrible mistake. Brown’s soundbites hitting home.
‘Let us again never be an empty chair in Europe. My fear is David’s policies would put us in that position.’
8.06pm Clegg: I used to work for the man Maggie Thatcher sent to Brussels to bat for Europe (Leon Brittan). Europe is not perfect, it took 15 years to define chocolate, but we are stronger together and we are weaker apart.
8.04pm First question is about Europe. David Cameron says he wants us to be in Europe, but not run by Europe. He doesn’t want the euro, he doesn’t want us to give up our rebate. „To those who say ‘isolationism’, I say ‘nonsense’.”
8.03pm Nick Clegg: I’m so proud of the values that have made this country great, but this Government has let those values down. We shouldn’t be sending soldiers to war without the right equipment. We shouldn’t be tied up in accusations of complicity in torture. Britain should be taking the lead, especially on climate change.
8.02pm David Cameron: it’s clear from last week that the country wants change: only the Conservatives can deliver it. We want to get to work sorting out the economy.
8.01pm Gordon Brown up first: this may feel like a TV talent contest but it’s not. If it’s about style and PR, count me out. I want to focus on the substance. Like me or not, I’m the right man.
„Not everyone has the answers, but I say, get the big decisions wrong and you put Britain’s jobs and security at risk.”
8.00pm And suddenly, we’re away. Same format as last week: they start off with opening statements before taking questions from the audience.
Sursa: The Times
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