Plahotniuc-Dodon cartel have robbed Moldovan citizens of their last democratic right (EN+RO)

Against people’s will, the Plahotniuc-Dodon cartel has decided to use the politically controlled justice system to bring through the back door their own mayor and completely ignore the backbone of every democracy: the right to vote.

The European People’s Party (EPP) is outraged by the decision to invalidate the mandate of the democratically elected mayor of Chisinau, Andrei Nastase. Following the announcement, the EPP President, Joseph Daul made the following statement:

“I am appalled at the erosion of democracy in the Republic of Moldova. Only in an authoritarian country, can the judiciary ignore without reason the will of the people resulting from a democratic election. It is obvious that the election of Andrei Nastase as the capital mayor of Moldova was an unpleasant surprise for the Plahotniuc-Dodon alliance. Against people’s will, the Plahotniuc-Dodon cartel has decided to use the politically controlled justice system to bring through the back door their own mayor and completely ignore the backbone of every democracy: the right to vote.

The situation has never been worse than today. It is clear that the Plahotniuc-Dodon gang are capable of anything just to retain control of the country. The European Union cannot support or finance such cartels and EPP will not stand idly by. The Republic of Moldova has committed through the Association Agenda to substantially improve the independence of the judiciary and strengthen the rule of law. The decision made yesterday to invalidate the results of the elections and the will of the citizens of Chisinau casts serious doubts on the commitment of the Moldovan authorities to advance reforms.

All institutions of the European Union have previously expressed the importance of functioning democratic mechanisms in Moldova, such as the multi-party system. Yesterday’s decision stands as proof that Moldovan authorities did not undertake sufficient efforts to gain the trust of international partners in the functioning of the Moldovan institutions.

Governments and politicians should always exercise their power with great caution within their constitutional mandate. Any threats to the balance of power in Moldova endangers the European path of the Republic of Moldova. All EPP representatives in institutions of the European Union will act on the basis of these principles and will evaluate with great attention evolutions in Moldova.

The EPP will stand by the citizens of Chisinau and the Republic of Moldova in their aspiration for a prosperous future and European integration. We call on the governing authorities not to stand as an obstacle in our desire to support the people of Moldova.”

Cartelul Plahotniuc-Dodon le-a furat cetățenilor Republicii Moldova ultimul lor drept democratic

Partidul Popular European (PPE) este revoltat de decizia de invalidare a mandatului primarului ales în mod democratic la Chișinău, Andrei Năstase. În urma anunțului, Președintele PPE, Joseph Daul, a făcut următoarea declarație:

“Sunt consternat de erodarea democrației în Republica Moldova. Numai într-o țară autoritară, puterea judecătorească poate ignora fără motiv voința poporului rezultată dintr-o alegere democratică. Este evident că alegerea lui Andrei Năstase ca primar al capitalei Republicii Moldova a fost o surpriză neplăcută pentru alianța Plahotniuc-Dodon. Împotriva voinței oamenilor, cartelul Plahotniuc-Dodon a decis să folosească sistemul de justiție controlat politic pentru a-și aduce prin ușa din spate propriul primar și să ignore complet coloana vertebrală a oricărei democrații: dreptul de vot.

Situația nu a fost niciodată mai rea ca astăzi. Este clar că alianța Plahotniuc-Dodon este capabilă de orice pentru a-și păstra controlul asupra țării. Uniunea Europeană nu poate susține sau finanța astfel de carteluri, iar PPE nu va rămâne indiferent în fața acestei situații. Republica Moldova s-a angajat prin intermediul Agendei de Asociere să îmbunătățească substanțial independența sistemului judiciar și să consolideze statul de drept. Decizia de ieri de a invalida rezultatele alegerilor și voința locuitorilor Chișinăului ridică îndoieli serioase cu privire la angajamentul autorităților moldovenești de a avansa în implementarea reformelor.

Toate instituțiile Uniunii Europene au exprimat anterior importanța funcționării mecanismelor democratice în Moldova, cum ar fi sistemul pluripartit. Decizia de ieri este o dovadă că autoritățile nu au depus eforturi suficiente pentru a câștiga încrederea partenerilor internaționali în funcționarea instituțiilor moldovenești.

Guvernele și politicienii ar trebui să își exercite întotdeauna puterea cu mare prudență în cadrul mandatului lor constituțional. Orice amenințare la adresa echilibrului puterilor în Republica Moldova pune în pericol parcursul european al țării. Toți reprezentanții PPE din instituțiile Uniunii Europene vor acționa pe baza acestor principii și vor evalua cu mare atenție evoluțiile din Moldova.

PPE va sprijini cetățenii Chișinăului și Republicii Moldova în aspirațiile lor pentru un viitor prosper și pentru integrarea europeană. Facem apel la autoritățile guvernamentale să nu fie un obstacol în dorința noastră de a susține cetățenii Republicii Moldova”.

European People’s Party (EPP) 

 

Reclame

Absenteismul, cancerul democratiei parlamentare

Regula democratiei parlamentare este simpla. Un exemplu pe intelesul tuturor. Intr-o comunitate traiesc 100 de cetateni. 80 sunt saraci, unii dintre ei analfabeti si mai toti flaminzi. 20 sunt bine educati, bogati si bine imbracati. In ziua votului 19 din cei 20 cetateni bogati stau acasa, joaca bridge, se delecteaza la un pahar de whisky scotian si comenteaza pe retelele de socializare.

Din cei 80 de saraci, analfabeti si flaminzi 79 se prezinta la vot si voteaza un candidat populist, dar corupt pina in maduva oaselor. Dupa alegeri DNA deschide proaspat alesului parlamentar un dosar de coruptie. Peste noaptei cei destepti si bogati se simt indignati, unii protesteaza, altii cer alegeri anticipate. Se strang semnaturi si se organizeaza un referendum de demitere.

Cetatenii saraci si flaminzi stau in ziua votului acasa si absenteaza masiv. Parlamentarul corupt reuseste astfel sa isi conserve imunitatea.

Democratia este oarba si nu cunoaste cetateni bogati sau saraci, democratia nu face diferenta intre geniu si prostia oarba. Toata tarile prospere au progresat spre stabilitate si prosperitate prin PARTICIPARE MASIVA ==> MINIM 80% la urne<===.

Nu exista un parlament al non-votantilor. Cine nu voteaza gireaza prin absenteism populismul si partidele extremiste.

absenteism Foto: Leonid Tica

Publicat în așa cum se întâmplă în toate statele democratice din Uniunea Europeană, alegeri europarlamentare 2014, alegeri parlamentare 1937, alegeri parlamentare 1990, alegeri parlamentare 2008, alegeri parlamentare 2012, alegeri parlamentare 2016, alegeri parlamentare 9 decembrie, alegeri parlamentare 9 decembrie 2012, alegeri parlamentare anticipate, alegeri parlamentare anticipate 2012, alegeri parlamentare anticipate 25.05.2014, alegeri parlamentare anticipate Grecia, alegeri parlamentare anticipate Tara Hategului, alegeri parlamentare cehia, alegeri parlamentare Franta 2012, Alegeri parlamentare Italia, alegeri parlamentare marea britanie, alegeri parlamentare Olanda, alegeri parlamentare republica moldova, alegeri parlamentare Serbia, alegeri parlamentare Slovacia 2012, alegeri parlamentare Spania 2011, alegeri parlamentare ungaria 2010, alegeri parlamentare Venezuela, alegeri parlamentaree 1946, Alegerile europarlamentare (22-25.05.2014), alegerile europarlamentare 2019, alegerile europarlamentare 22-25 mai 2014, alegerile europarlamentare din 25 mai 2014, alegerile parlamentare 2016, Alegerile parlamentare din Germania - sondaje si proiectii electorale, Alegerile pentru Parlamentul European din 22 - 25 mai 2014, Bursa transferurilor parlamentare, ca în Federația Rusă. Parlamentul a tins să devină o cochilie vidă, calendar alegeri parlamentare 2012, democratie consolidata, democratie defecta, exit polls alegeri parlamentare anticipate republica moldova, și care privește climatul politic al României într-un moment delicat. Sperăm că declarațiile Dvs de susținere a democrației în România vor reflecta de asemeni aceste fapte complexe, OSCE/ODIHR caută observatori pentru alegerile parlamentare, Parlament, parlament unicameral 300 de deputati, Parlamentul a votat o moțiune de cenzură împotriva guvernului, Președintele Basescu a încălcat principiul fundamental al separației și echilibrului puterilor. Guvernul României nu a mai răspuns în fața Parlamentului, Prognoza alegeri parlamentare 09.12.2012, Restauratia monarhiei parlamentare - ACUM!, sectii de votare in Germania - alegeri parlamentare in Germania 2016, Simulare alegeri europarlamentare (data base, Spune-i Parlamentarului tău: NU - Roșia Montană, trebuie să fie numiți de Parlament. De curând a adăugat că ”aproape s-a decis” cu privire la persoana viitorului Procuror General, Uncategorized. Leave a Comment »

Situatia partidelor socialdemocrate in UE

Sa analizam situatia partidelor socialdemocrate in UE. Procentele obtinute in alegerile parlamentare arata astfel:

Malta – 55,04% (2013: 54,08%),  PV=92,06% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Romania – 45,68% (2012: 33,61%), PV=39,78% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Marea Britanie  – 40,30% (2015: 30,50%), PV=68,70% ===> Opozitie

Croatia – 33,82% (2015;32,31%), PV=52,59% ===> Opozitie

Portugalia – 32,30% (2011 28,10%), PV=55,86% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Suedia  – 31% (2010: 30,70%), PV=85,80% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Slovacia  – 28,28% (2012: 44,41%), PV=59,82% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala 

Bulgaria – 27,19% (2014: 15,40%), PV=52,57% ===> Opozitie

Austria – 26,86%% (2013: 26,8%), PV=80% ===> Opozitie

Danemarca – 26,3% (2011: 24,8%), PV=85,80% ===> Opozitie

Letonia – 23% (2011: 28,40%), PV=58,85% ===> Opozitie,

Spania – 22,60% (2015: 22%), PV=22,63% ===> Opozitie

Belgia – 20,52% (2010: 22,94%), PV=89,45% ===> Opozitie

Germania – 20,50% (2013: 25,70%), PV=76,20% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Luxemburg – 20,20% (2009: 21.60%), PV= ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Italia – 18,77% (2013: 26,45%) ===> Opozite

Ungaria – 17,91% (2014: 25,57%), PV=67,56% ===> Opozitie

Finlanda – 16,51% (2011: 19.10%) ===> Opozitie

Estonia – 15,2% (2011: 17,10) ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Lituania – 15% (2012: 18,30%)  ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Slovenia – 9,93% (2014: 10.5%), PV = 52,63% ===> Coalitie guvernamentala

Franta – 7,44% (2012: 29,35%) ===> Opozite

Cehia – 7,3% (2013: 20,5%) ===> Opozitie

Irlanda – 6,6% (2011: 19,5%)  ===> Opozitie 

Grecia – 6,28% (2015; 4,68%) ===> Opozitie

Cipru – 6,20% (2011: 8,90%) ===> Opozitie

Olanda – 5,70% (2012: 24,84%) ===> Opozitie

Polonia – partid neparlamentar

Socialdemocratii guverneaza in Malta, Italia, Romania, Portugalia, Slovacia, Suedia, Germania, Luxemburg, Estonia, Lituania, Slovenia.

In anul in curs este posibil ca socialdemocratii sa piarda guvernarea in Italia, Suedia, Letonia, Luxemburg si Slovenia. In fostele tari comuniste socialdemocratii guverneaza in Slovacia, Estonia, Lituania si Slovenia. In restul tarilor socialdemocratii se pozitioneaza sub marja de 25%, in Polonia socialdemocratii se afla in afara parlamentului.

Se observa ca in Franta, Olanda, Grecia, Irlanda, Germania, Spania si Danemarca au obtinut scoruri foarte slabe, impartind soarta opozitiei alaturi de alte partide.

Bulgaria, Romania si Slovacia sunt singurele exceptii unde partidele socialdemocrate depasesc marja de 25%.

 

 

 

Publicat în 2 mai 2013 alegeri locale in Anglia; Tara Galilor si Scotia, alegeri anticipate colegiul 1 sectorul 1 Bucuresti, alegeri anticipate colegiul 19 sectorul 4 Bucuresti, alegeri anticipate in landul Renania de Nordwestfalia, alegeri europarlamentare 2014, alegeri locale 10 octombrie, alegeri locale 1992, Alegeri locale 2012, alegeri locale Bavaria, alegeri locale Berlin 2011, Alegeri locale Italia 2011, alegeri locale partiale Sanislau, Alegeri locale Saxonia Inferioara, alegeri locale spania 2010, alegeri locale Spania 2011, alegeri locale Viena, alegeri parlamentare 1937, alegeri parlamentare 1990, alegeri parlamentare 2008, alegeri parlamentare 2012, alegeri parlamentare 2016, alegeri parlamentare 9 decembrie, alegeri parlamentare 9 decembrie 2012, alegeri parlamentare anticipate, alegeri parlamentare anticipate 2012, alegeri parlamentare anticipate 25.05.2014, alegeri parlamentare anticipate Grecia, alegeri parlamentare anticipate Tara Hategului, alegeri parlamentare cehia, alegeri parlamentare Franta 2012, Alegeri parlamentare Italia, alegeri parlamentare marea britanie, alegeri parlamentare Olanda, alegeri parlamentare republica moldova, alegeri parlamentare Serbia, alegeri parlamentare Slovacia 2012, alegeri parlamentare Spania 2011, alegeri parlamentare ungaria 2010, alegeri parlamentare Venezuela, alegeri parlamentaree 1946, alegeri partiale colegiul 3 Hunedoara, alegeri prezidentiale 2 noiembrie 2014, alegeri prezidentiale 2009, alegeri prezidentiale 2014, alegeri prezidentiale anticipate, alegeri prezidentiale Franta 2012, alegeri prezidentiale Slovacia, alegeri primar Baia Mare, alegeri Ramnicu Valcea, alegeri regionale Franta, Alegeri regionale Franta 2010, alegeri ungaria 2010, Alegerile europarlamentare (22-25.05.2014), alegerile europarlamentare 2019, alegerile europarlamentare 22-25 mai 2014, alegerile europarlamentare din 25 mai 2014, alegerile parlamentare 2016, Alegerile parlamentare din Germania - sondaje si proiectii electorale, Alegerile pentru Parlamentul European din 22 - 25 mai 2014, BUFONII IN ALEGERILE DIN ITALIA, calendar alegeri parlamentare 2012, PSD, PSDR, Uncategorized. Leave a Comment »

Slabiciunea opozitiei

Problema este ca avem o Opozitie foarte slaba. Nici macar in anii CDR 92-95 opozitia nu este atat de slaba. USR practic nu exista.

Poate imi spune cineva o singura initiativa parlamentara remarcabila sau notabila venita din partea USR? Daca nu era batut Gugiu de Palada, cred ca USR disparea definitiv in neant. PMP se apropie de minus infinit.

Cu exceptia Ciclopului si a lui Cristian Diaconescu, partidul nu exista.

A mai ramas PNL: In sfarsit odiseea unificarii a trecut, dar partidul inca sta pe loc. Normal, un parid de opozitie ar trebui sa aiba un guvern din umbra, un proiect, un carlig media. Isi mai aminteste cineva de Mona Musca, care il toca zilnica pe Adrian Nastase? Asa ceva are nevoie PNL.

Si PNL mai are nevoie de trei patru politicieni de varf. Electoratul trebuie sa stie ca X este viitorul ministru de finante, Y este viitorul ministru de externe si Z este viitorul ministru de justitie.

Si alaturi de acestia PNL ca partid ar trebui sa faca tambalau pina se sparg timpanele. Ca strategie PNL ar trebuie sa colecteze tot ce mai misca la centru si centru-dreapta. PMP si factiunea liberala din USR ar trebuie sa fuzioneze in PNL si cu UDMR trebuie ajuns la un agreement, la o intelegere, In exact doi ani avem alegeri prezidentiale. Iohannis va avea nevoie de un suport politic consistent, altfel ne trezim cu o mare supriza in turul doi. Europa se schimba cu viteza luminii.

In jurul nostru partide filoruse, au inceput sa castige teren. In functie de tara si de sistem politic, avem doua partide rusofile in Germana (Alternativa pentru Germanai si Noua Stanga) sau un partid (Partidul Libertatii in Austria, Frontul National in Franta, Miscarea 5 Stele in Italia).

Nu stiu daca Pro Romania apartine de aceasta specie, dar nemultumirea creste. Daca ne uitam la alegerile din Franta, Germania si Austria, participarea la vot a fost de 75-78% In acelasi timp partidele socialdemocrate au obtinut scoruri foarte slabe: 12% in Franta, 20% in Germania, 26% in Austria.

Se creeaza astfel un spatiu politic, un coridor politic care nu este ocupat nici de stanga, dar nici de dreapta.

Pina acum Romania nu a avut lideri nationalisti sau de exttrema dreapta, autentici, Tara imi este teama ca acest spatiu poate sa fie ocupat de un lider imbracat la camasa verde, cu un discurs nationalist-mesianic.

In trecut au mai existat incercari si experimente (Drumul Crucii, Alianta Nationala, Partidul Noua Romanie). Ramine de vazut daca pina la europarlamentare se cristalizeaza o factiune eurosceptica sau Romania ramine un fel de „Jurassic Park” al stangii socialdemocrate. PSD este singurul partid socialdemocrat care mai guverneaza in fostele tari comuniste.

Republica Moldova analizata de George Friedman (Stratfor.com)

Sursa informationala: Stratfor.com

Autor: George Friedman

Moldova is a country in need of explanation, two explanations in fact. First, there is the question of what kind of country Moldova is. Second, there is the question of why anyone should care. Oddly, I went to Moldova thinking I knew the answer to the second question but not the first. I came away unsure of either. Let’s begin with the second question: Why does Moldova matter?

The second article in this series, “Borderlands,” described the re-emergence of Russian regional power following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russian national security is dependent on two countries that became independent following the collapse. Belarus is the buffer between Russia and Europe on the North European Plain. Ukraine is the buffer between Russia and the Carpathian Mountains. From the Russian point of view, dominating these countries is less important than Europe and the United States not dominating them. The Russians have achieved this and perhaps more.

Ukraine is Russia’s southwestern anchor and its Achilles’ heel. It is difficult for Russia to be secure without Ukraine both for economic and strategic reasons. Russia would be hard to defend if Ukraine were under the control of a hostile power. What Ukraine is to Russia, Moldova is to Ukraine. It is a salient that makes Ukraine difficult to defend, and if Ukraine can’t be defended Russia can’t be defended either. Or so my reasoning went at the beginning of my visit.

Moldova’s Strategic Position

I had strong historical arguments for this. My thinking was in line with Stalin’s. In 1939, the Soviets signed a nonaggression pact with Nazi Germany. One part of the agreement secretly partitioned Poland between Germany and the Soviet Union. Another part of the treaty secretly ceded Bessarabia to the Soviets, even though Bessarabia was part of Romania. The Soviets seized Bessarabia in 1940, renaming it the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic and changing its boundaries somewhat. Bessarabia can thus be thought of as Moldova’s predecessor.

There were many things the Soviets might have demanded from the Germans, but this, along with eastern Poland, was what they asked for. The reason was strategic:

  1. The eastern frontier of Bessarabia, and therefore of Romania, was less than 50 miles from the Soviet port of Odessa, the Soviet Union’s major outlet to the Black and Mediterranean seas.
  2. Romania was anchored in the east on the Dniester River. Should the Soviets decide to attack westward at any point, the Dniester was a formidable defensive line.
  3. By taking Bessarabia, the Soviets eliminated part of a salient from which Kiev could be threatened.
  4. The Soviets pushed their frontier west to the Prut River.
  5. The Soviets could interdict the Danube from Bessarabia. Close the Danube and European trade — in this case, German trade — would be damaged.

Stalin wanted to increase Ukraine’s security and increase Romania’s and the Danube basin’s vulnerability. As obscure as it was to the rest of the world, Bessarabia became a key piece on the chessboard between Hitler and Stalin, just as the Russian and Ottoman empires had sought after it before. Places that are of little interest to the rest of the world can be of great importance to great powers.

As it was, the bet didn’t pay off for Stalin, as Hitler attacked the Soviets and quickly seized all the regions conceded to them. But what Stalin lost in 1941, he regained in 1944. He had no intention of returning Bessarabia to Romania. He shifted some Moldovan territory to Ukraine and transferred some Ukrainian territory east of the Dniester River to Moldova. Since it was all under Soviet control, these were merely administrative shifts with no strategic significance at the time.

After the Soviet collapse, this territory became the Republic of Moldova. The portion east of the Dniester revolted with Russian support, and Moldova lost effective control of what was called Transdniestria. Moldova remained in control of the area between the Prut and Dniester rivers, for about 18 years a fairly insignificant region. Indeed, from a global point of view, Moldova was just a place on a map until 2010. The Ukrainian elections of 2010 brought what seems to be a pro-Russian government to power, repudiating the Orange Revolution. As I argued in “Borderlands,” this was a key step in the resurrection of Russian strategic power. Consequently, Moldova began to shift from being a piece of land between two rivers to being a strategic asset for both the Russians and any Western entity that might wish to contain or threaten Ukraine and therefore Russia.

Let me emphasize the idea that it “began to shift,” not that it is now a strategic asset. This is an unfolding process. Its importance depends on three things:

These are all moving parts; none is in place. Moldova is therefore a place of emerging importance, as the saying goes. But however slow this process, this fairly obscure country has lost its insignificance, as it does whenever great powers clash in this part of the world.

This is why I wanted to visit Moldova: It seemed to be evolving into strategic terrain, and I wanted to understand it.

The Moldovan Identity

Moldova, of course, is not just a strategic chip. It is a place where people live, caught between their Romanian heritage and their Soviet past. It is a mistake to think of Moldova simply as part of the Romania that had been taken by the Soviets, which once freed from Soviet domination would simply rejoin Romania. Seventy years after the partition, Moldova has become more than a Romanian province, far from a Russian province and something less than a nation. This is where geopolitics and social reality begin to collide.

The Soviets brutalized Moldova. I had a conversation with a Moldovan journalist in which he described how he and his family had been deported in 1948 to Tomsk in Siberia. He put it almost casually; it was the common heritage of Moldovans. Stalin was concerned that the Moldovans would want to rejoin Romania, and although Romania was a Soviet satellite, Stalin didn’t want to take any chances. His solution, repeated many times in many places in the Soviet Union, was the deportation of the Romanian population, importing Russians, a small famine and the terror designed to break the Moldovan spirit.

The difference between Eastern Europe and the former republics of the Soviet Union was driven home to me in Moldova. In the Eastern European countries, the Soviet era is regarded as a nightmare and the Russians are deeply distrusted and feared to this day. In Moldova, there is genuine nostalgia for the Soviet period as there is in other parts of the former Soviet Union. Indeed, in Moldova communist rule didn’t end in 1992. The Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM), heir to the Communist Party that was banned, continued to rule Moldova until 2009. The PCRM was not ideologically communist; it had no real ideology at all. What it offered was continued ties to Russia and a sense of continuity to a country that preferred the familiar.

Bessarabia was a province of Romania, and Bessarabians generally spoke Romanian. In today’s Moldova, Romanian is not the only language spoken. As in most former Soviet republics, Russian is widely spoken, and not simply by Russians living there. For a large part of the Moldovan population, Russian is the preferred language. Older Moldovans were taught Russian in school and learned to use it in everyday life. But younger Moldovans also speak Russian, and signs are in Romanian and Russian. In addition, it was pointed out to me (I don’t speak any Romanian) that the Romanian spoken in Moldova is not quite the same as that spoken in Romania today. It has not evolved the same way and has an archaic cast to it. You can easily distinguish between a Romanian and a Moldovan speaking Romanian.

There is genuine tension about this. A member of our staff who lives in Romania accompanied us to Moldova. She told us about going into a store that sold chocolate. (Apparently, it was quite famous for its chocolates.) When she spoke, her Romanian was clearly distinguishable from the Moldovan variety and obviously from Russian. She was not served, was ignored for a while and then shuttled between lines. As she explained it, the Moldovans feel that Romanians look down on them, and so Moldovans resent them. Obviously, this is a single anecdote, but others spoke of this three-way tension between Romanians, Moldovan Romanian speakers and Russian speakers.

This split runs parallel to political fault lines. While there are those who want union with Romania, this is far from the dominant group. The real struggle is between those who back the communists and those who support an independent Moldova oriented toward the European Union and NATO. In broad terms, the communists’ strength is among the rural, poor and elderly. The pro-Western parties are handicapped by being divided into a series of parties that vary by personality more than ideology. This means that the government created after demonstrators routed the communists in 2009 is a highly fragmented coalition made more fragile by the complex interests, personalities and ambitions of each. The communists may not get a majority, but they don’t need as many coalition partners as do the pro-Western parties.

There will be an election Nov. 28. The country has billboards with various candidates all around and rallies throughout the country. Western nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are there. Some are funded, we were told, by the American National Endowment for Democracy, others supported by NATO and so on. The Russians, too, have learned the NGO gambit from the West by watching the various color revolutions. Russian-supported NGOs are in the country, and as one journalist told me, they are serving wine and cheese to young people. That appears to be having an impact.

The real issue behind the complex politics is simply this: What is Moldova? There is consensus on what it is not: It is not going to be a province of Romania. But Moldova was a province of Romania and a Soviet Socialist Republic. What is it now? What does it mean to be a Moldovan? On this question I could see no consensus. There are nations that lack a state, like the Kurds. Moldova is a state that lacks a nation. Nation-building in Moldova is not so much about institutions but about creating a national consensus about the nation.

As in Romania, the pro-Western faction has a clear solution to this problem: membership in NATO and membership in the European Union. If they get this, they feel, they will then have a secure definition of a nation — a European country — and protection from the Russians and others who might threaten them. Romania sees membership in these organizations as a way to overcome its past. Moldova sees this as providing definition to their country. But where being European is a general goal in Romania, it is hotly disputed in Moldova, although what the communists want in practice, aside from power, is quite unclear.

And this is the core problem in Moldova. The pro-Western factions’ idea is to join the European Union and NATO and have that stamp a definition on the country. It does not take into account the powerful Communist Party with its Russian ties, nor does it take into account the substantial portion of the country that identifies with Russia rather than with the West. Some of the pro-Western parties, sensitive to this problem, have reached out to the Russians, either with visits to Moscow or indirectly. Committed to the Western option, they are trying to accommodate pro-Russian sentiment. But squaring the circle is not easy, and the basic divisions remain in place. In that sense, the country is in gridlock. Whoever wins this or succeeding elections governs a country that is significantly divided and with very different ideas about what the country should look like and who should govern it.

An Economy of Shadows

This is made even more difficult when you consider Moldova’s economic condition. It is said to be one of the poorest countries in Europe, if not the poorest. About 12 percent of its gross domestic product is provided by remittances from emigrants working in other European countries, some illegally. This has fallen from 19 percent, not by economic growth, but since the global recession cut remittances. Romania has begun a program of providing Moldovans with Romanian passports. This allows the Moldovans to travel and work anywhere in the European Union. They were already doing this illegally. Now the process of emigration and remittance has become formal. Some in Moldova charge that this is an attempt by Romania to undermine Moldova by encouraging emigration. But given the remittance situation, it is probably a lifeline.

People in Moldova and in Romania have told me that that the largest export of Moldova is women, who are lured into or willingly join (depending on who you might ask) the Moldovan diaspora to work as prostitutes. Some say (and I can’t verify) that Moldovan women constitute the largest number of prostitutes working in Europe’s legal brothels. This is a discussion for which there are few valid statistics and many opinions. Yet in talking to people, the claim does not seem controversial. This is a sign of a desperate country.

Consider this anecdote from a Saturday night spent walking the streets of Chisinau, the capital. The sidewalks of the main street filled with young people, from their late teens to their mid-twenties. I was told that there were no clubs for young people to party in, so they gather in the streets. That’s not all that odd: It reminds me of Queens Boulevard in New York during my high school years. What was odd was the way they clustered in groups of five to 15. At the center of each group was a small number of girls, one to three, all dressed stunningly compared to the boys, who were one cut above slobs. The oddity was the extent to which the boys outnumbered girls. I could never find out if the other girls were home with their parents or there was a shortage of young women. Regardless, my wife assured me the girls were not wearing cheap clothes; she estimated the boots alone ran into the hundreds of dollars.

I don’t quite know how to read this, but add to this the fact that there were bank branches up and down the main street. When we visited a small town north of the capital, it also had a string of bank branches lining the street. Bank branches are expensive to build and maintain. They need depositors to keep them going, and when you have seven competing banks in a small town that means there is money there. Certainly, the town didn’t look poor.

So, we have a paradox. The numbers say Moldova is extremely poor, yet there are lots of banks and well and expensively dressed young women. The young men all seemed to share my taste in clothes, which might come from poverty or indifference, so they don’t fit the analysis. But I am fairly confident in saying that the official statistics of Moldova and the economic reality are not in sync.

There are three possible explanations. The first is that remittances are flooding the country, from women or other expatriates, and that the banks are there to service the money coming in. The second is that there is a massive shadow economy that evades regulation, taxation and statistical analysis. The third explanation is that the capital and a few towns are fairly affluent while the rural areas are extraordinarily poor. (I saw some Soviet-era apartments that might confirm that.) I suspect the answer is all three are correct, explaining the split politics in the country.

The Republic of Moldova has a profound identity crisis, a deeply divided political system and an economy which does not have, as they say, full transparency. It is therefore difficult to think about it geopolitically.

Moldova and Strategy

From the Moldovan point of view, at least among the pro-Western factions, Moldova’s strategic problems begin and end with Transdniestria. They want to regain the east bank of the river. The region would have real benefits for Moldova, as it would be its industrial heartland, in relative terms at least. Like some other disputed territories in the former Soviet Union, however, it is the dispute, more than the strategic value of the territory, that is important. It is a rallying point, or at least an attempt to find one. It also a basis for pro-Western groups to attack pro-Russian groups since the Russians protect the breakaway region.

The Germans, who are getting close to the Russians, appear to be trying to facilitate negotiations regarding Transdniestria. The Russians may accommodate the Germans. But if they do, I doubt the outcome will deny the Russians control of the east bank of the Dniester. From the Russian point of view, hostile forces east of the Dniester could threaten Odessa, and they see no reason to leave the Dniester River regardless of how benign conditions appear right now. The Russian view, driven home by history, is that benign situations can turn malignant with remarkable speed.

There is an oddity here, of course. I am talking about Russian troops on the Dniester, but this in a country surrounded by Ukraine, not Russia. The Russians are supporting the Transdniestrian republic while the Ukrainians have not. Since 1992, the Ukrainians have not made an effective demand for the Russians to stop interfering in what is essentially a Ukrainian-Moldovan issue. This might be because the Ukrainians don’t want other lands that had been taken from Moldova and given to Ukraine put on the table as a bargaining chip. But I suspect the reason is simpler: Regardless of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russians are the ones concerned about things like a defensive river position while the Ukrainians see the matter with more detachment.

A Net Assessment

On a map, Moldova is valuable real estate. It is a region that in the hands of NATO or any other Western power could provide leverage against Russian power, and perhaps strengthen Ukraine’s desire to resist Russia. Putting NATO troops close to Odessa, a Ukrainian port Russians depend on, would cause the Russians to be cautious. The problem is that the Russians clearly understand this and are doing what they can to create a pro-Russian state in Moldova, or at least a state sufficiently unstable that no one can use it to threaten the Russians.

Moldova is caught between its Romanian roots and its Soviet past. It has not developed a national identity independent of these two poles. Moldova is a borderland-within-a-borderland. It is a place of foreign influences from all sides. But it is a place without a clear center. On one side, there is nostalgia for the good old days of the Soviet Union — which gives you a sense of how bad things are now for many Moldovans. On the other side is hope that the European Union and NATO will create and defend a nation that doesn’t exist.

If geopolitics were a theoretical game, then the logical move would be to integrate Moldova into NATO immediately and make it a member of the European Union. There are equally strange nations that are members of each. But geopolitics teaches that the foundation of national strategy is the existence of a nation. That may be obvious, but it is something that needs to be said. I came to Moldova looking in the borderland for a nation that might be a counter to Russian resurgence. I thought I had found the nation on the map. It turned out that while there were people living there, they were not a nation. What appeared promising on a map was very different in reality.

This is not to say that Moldova cannot evolve a sense of nationhood and identity. But such things take a long time to create and rarely emerge peacefully. In the meantime, powerful forces on all sides might make the creation of a Moldovan nation difficult if not impossible. This may well be a case of a state that could forge a nation if it were a member of the European Union and NATO, but the European Union is dealing with Ireland, and NATO has no appetite to confront Russia. This will be up to the Moldovans. It is not clear to me how much time history will give them to reach a consensus.

It is certainly not for me to advise the Moldovans, since I don’t share their fate. But given that I won’t be listened to anyway, I will offer this observation. Moldova was once part of Romania. It was once part of the Soviet Union. Moldova makes a great deal of sense as part of something. The Soviet Union is gone. Europe has more problems than it can handle already; it is not looking for more. Romania is still there. It is not a perfect solution, and certainly not one many Moldovans would welcome, but it is a solution, however imperfect.

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